The Abacus Prompt - January 2017 Issue

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Stock Market

  • The KSE-100 index increased by 1.1% MoM, closing at 48,758 ptsGraph Jan 17
  • Average daily turnover increased 26% MoM to ~440 mn shares
  • Foreign investment (as measured by FIPI activity) recorded a net sell of USD 111 mn in Jan
  • Mutual Funds and Individuals were largely net buyers during Jan of USD 44 mn and USD 40 mn respectively, while other organizations were net sellers of USD 8 mn
  • Top growing sectors during the month were Engineering, Refining, and Sugar & Allied; whereas Oil & Gas Exploration, Textile Weaving, and Glass & Ceramics were major losers

Currency and Commodity MarketsCurrency Jan 2017

  • The PKR depreciated by 0.10% MoM against the USD, 1.98% MoM against the GBP and 1.76% MoM against the EUR
  • Domestic Gold prices increased by 0.32% MoM, while domestic Silver prices increased 2.68%
  • WTI Crude declined by 1.69% MoM. Domestic HSD and Motor Spirit prices –set on fortnightly basis– increased by 2.66% and 2.67% MoM, respectively
  • Cotton (KCA) prices increased 6.40% MoM to PKR 6,650/maund
  • Urea prices increased 4.75% MoM to PKR 1,433/bag
  • Cement dispatches were 3.09 mn tons, lower 13.20% MoM. Prices increased 0.95% MoM to around PKR 554/ bag

Macroeconomic Profile

  • The SBP kept the policy rate unchanged at 5.75% in Jan
  • Forex Reserves decreased by USD 0.76 bn to USD 22.43 bn in Jan
  • CPI Inflation was recorded at 3.70% YoY
  • Exports increased by 2.89% MoM to USD 1.78 bn and imports increased by 5.27% MoM to USD 4.74 bn; resultantly, the trade deficit increased by 6.75% MoM to USD 2.96 bn
  • Foreign remittances decreased by 5.84% MoM to USD 1.49 bn
  • Federal tax collection was recorded at around PKR 228.0 bn
  • FDI was recorded at USD 81 mn in Jan 2017, compared to USD 595 mn in Dec 2016 owing to a one-off inflow of USD 460 mn during Dec

News Highlights

  • Privatisation Commission (PC) Board approved a lease-out plan for the Pakistan Steel Mills and the transaction structure of SME Bank
  • Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 45th President of the USA
  • Muhammad Zubair was appointed as the new Governor of Sindh
  • Asian Development Bank agreed to provide a USD 197 million loan for the Post-Flood National Highways Rehabilitation project
  • OGRA issued the first-ever private sector distribution license for natural gas sales in Sindh to a local company
  • Pakistan ranked 52nd amongst 79 developing economies in the World Economic Forum’s Inclusive Development Index
  • Dr. Muhammad Irshad was appointed as the new chairman of the FBR
  • The 47th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting was held in Davos