The Abacus Prompt - January 2016 Issue

Stock Market

  • The KSE-100 index decreased by 4.62% MoM, closing at 31,299 pts
  • Average daily turnover decreased 8.77% MoM to ~128 mn shares,  and average traded value decreased 6% MoM to ~USD 70 mn
  • FDI was recorded at USD 23.9 mn in Jan, down 71.51% MoM
  • Net FIPI outflows were recorded at ~USD 50 mn, higher 45.8% MoM
  • Only two sectors posted positive returns during the month; these were the Construction & Materials and Automobiles & Parts Sectors   

Currency and Commodity Markets

  • The PKR weakened by 0.15% MoM against the USD, but appreciated 3.26%  and 0.10% MoM against the GBP and EUR respectively
  • Domestic Gold prices increased 3.16% MoM, and similarly Silver prices increased 1.54% MoM
  • WTI Crude decreased over 8% MoM. Domestic HSD and Motor Spirit prices similarly decreased by 5.99% and 5.61% MoM respectively
  • Cotton (KCA) prices increased 4.18% MoM to PKR 5,450/maund
  • Urea prices decreased about 1% % MoM to PKR 1,908/bag
  • Cement dispatches were 3.1 mn tons, lower ~10% MoM and 6.06% YoY. Prices decreased marginally 0.16% to close at PKR 517.59/50kg

Macroeconomic Profile

  • The SBP kept the policy rate unchanged at 6%
  • Forex Reserves decreased by USD 0.53 bn to reach USD 20.28 bn
  • CPI Inflation was recorded at 3.32%
  • Exports decreased by 0.89% MoM to USD 1.77 bn and imports decreased 8.69% MoM to USD 3.51 bn; resultantly, the trade deficit decreased 15.47% MoM to USD 1.74 bn
  • Foreign remittances fell 10.64% MoM to reach USD 1.46 bn  
  • Federal tax collection was recorded at about PKR 209 bn (exceeding the Jan target of PKR 205 bn)               

News Highlights

  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange was formally launched on Jan 11
  • The PIA Privatization bill was passed in the NA; resultantly, opposition members erupted in protest. Afterwards, employees of PIA observed a  strike, resulting in the death of 2 PIA employees
  • The FIA arrested the CEO and two directors of AKD Securities accused of  causing a loss of PKR 290 mn to the exchequer
  • PM Nawaz Sharif announced a cut of PKR 3 per unit in electricity tariff for industrial users 
  • 21 were killed and 30 injured in a terrorist attack on Bacha Khan University in Charsadda, KPK
  • International sanctions on Iran were lifted , allowing Iran to resume oil exports and receive USD 100 mn in frozen assets
  • Saudi Arabia executed a prominent Shia Cleric, leading to an infuriated response from the Shia community, led by Iran. Consequently, both nations cut formal ties with one another
  • The Shanghai Market fell 7%, triggering circuit breakers to stop trading on the Chinese CSI 300 and causing severe volatility in global markets

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