The Abacus Prompt - February 2016 Issue

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Stock Market

  • The KSE-100 index increased by 0.22% MoM, closing at 31,369 pts
  • Average daily turnover increased 6.25% MoM to ~136 mn shares, and average traded value decreased 2% MoM to ~USD 69 mn
  • FDI was recorded at USD 103 mn in Feb, up from 23.9 mn in Jan
  • Net FIPI outflows were recorded at ~USD 40 mn, lower ~20% MoM
  • Top growing sectors during the month were the Financial Services, Banks and Power Generation & Distribution Sectors

Currency and Commodity Markets

  • The PKR appreciated by 0.22% MoM against the USD and 2.46% MoM against the GBP, but depreciated 0.11% against the EUR
  • Domestic Gold prices increased 5.25% MoM, and Silver prices remained unchanged
  • WTI Crude increased by 6.74% MoM. Domestic HSD and Motor Spirit prices however decreased by 6.19% and 6.56% MoM respectively
  • Cotton (KCA) prices decreased about 2.75% MoM to PKR 5,300/maund
  • Urea prices decreased about 1.5% % MoM to PKR 1,880/bag
  • Cement dispatches were ~3.24 mn tons, higher 4.5% MoM and 17.0% YoY. Prices decreased marginally 0.32% to close at PKR 515.94/50kg

Macroeconomic Profile

  • The policy rate remained unchanged at 6%
  • Forex Reserves increased by USD 0.07 MoM bn to reach USD 20.35 bn
  • CPI Inflation was recorded at 4.02% YoY
  • Exports increased by 1.07% MoM to USD 1.79 bn and imports decreased 5.17% MoM to USD 3.30 bn; resultantly, the trade deficit decreased 11.62% MoM to USD 1.79 bn
  • Foreign remittances increased by 3.66% MoM to reach USD 1.52
  • Federal tax collection was recorded at about PKR 162 bn

News Highlights

  • The IMF and the GoP agreed to delay the transactions of PIA and PSMC for six months. Similarly, the GoP announced that it is revisiting its strategy with respect to the privatizations of DISCO’s
  • The withholding tax on banking transactions (above PKR 50,000) for non-filers was increased from 0.3% to 0.4%, and the deadline for the Tax Amnesty Scheme was extended to the end of March
  • The GoP reduced the price of petrol (Motor Spirit) by 12% MoM to PKR 62.77 for Mar 2016
  • Dutch company FrieslandCampina International Holding BV announced its intention to acquire a 51% stake in Engro Foods for USD 508 mn
  • Protests erupted after Mumtaz Qadri – Salman Taseer’s killer - was executed in Rawalpindi
  • COAS Gen Raheel Sharif launched the final phase of Zarb-i-Azb
  • David Cameron confirmed 23rd June as the date for a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU
  • A temporary ceasefire was agreed by 97 fighting groups in Syria
  • Feb 2016 was recorded as the warmest Feb in history by a record 1.5 Celsius