The Abacus Prompt - December 2016 Issue

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Stock Market

  • The KSE-100 index increased by 11.40% MoM, closing at 47,807 pts.
  • Average daily turnover declined 28% MoM to ~350 mn shares.
  • Foreign investment (as measured by FIPI activity) recorded a net sell of USD 144 mn in Dec.
  • Mutual Funds and Companies were largely net buyers during Dec of USD 119.7 mn and USD 27.2 mn respectively, while other organizations were net sellers of USD 46.8 mn.
  • Top growing sectors during the month were Oil & Gas, Pharma and Cement whereas Textiles and Transport were major losers.

Currency and Commodity Markets

  • The PKR appreciated by 0.03% MoM against the USD, 1.64% MoM against the GBP and 0.53% MoM against the EUR
  • Domestic Gold prices decreased by 14.8% MoM, while domestic Silver prices decreased 20.8%
  • WTI Crude increased by 8.66% MoM. Domestic HSD and Motor Spirit prices –set during the first of Dec– increased by 3.72% and 3.11% MoM, respectively.
  • Cotton (KCA) prices decreased 0.79% MoM to PKR 6,250/maund
  • Urea prices decreased 5.40% MoM to PKR 1,368/bag.
  • Cement dispatches were 3.75 mn tons, up 6.30% MoM. Prices decreased 0.80% MoM to around PKR 549/ bag.

Macroeconomic Profile

  • The SBP kept the policy rate unchanged at 5.75%
  • Forex Reserves decreased by USD 0.18 bn to USD 23.16 bn in Dec.
  • CPI Inflation was recorded at 3.70% YoY.
  • Exports decreased by 1.82% MoM to USD 1.73 bn and imports increased by 6.38% MoM to USD 4.23 bn; resultantly, the trade deficit increased by 12.24% MoM to USD 2.77 bn.
  • Foreign remittances decreased by 2.23% MoM to reach USD 1.58 bn.
  • Federal tax collection was recorded at around PKR 382.0 bn.
  • FDI was recorded at USD 87 mn in Nov, up from USD 67 mn in Oct but down 40.6% YoY.

News Highlights

  • A PIA passenger plane crashed during a domestic flight from Chitral to Islamabad, killing all 47 people on board.
  • PSX sold 40% stake (320 million shares) of the bourse to a Chinese consortium @ PKR 28 per share for total value of PKR 8.96 bn.
  • China and Pakistan launched a direct rail and sea freight service between Kunming (in south-west China) and Karachi.
  • President Mamnoon Hussain ratified the Income Tax Amendment Act 2016 to grant legal cover to an amnesty scheme for the Real Estate sector.
  • Justice Mian Saqib Nisar was appointed as the 25th Chief Justice of Pakistan with effect from December 31, 2016.
  • Pakistan lifted the temporary ban imposed on ginned cotton imports from India, conditional on fulfillment of requisite import regulations.